NFL Week 9 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Bears @ Titans	Bears ρ=1.3163	Bears* δ=21.8	Bears -3½
Bills @ Texans	Texans ρ=1.2983	Texans δ=21.7	Texans -10
Chiefs @ Chargers	Chargers ρ=1.2250	Chargers δ=12.0	Chargers -8
Broncos @ Bengals	Broncos ρ=1.1997	Broncos* δ=15.8	Broncos -3½
Lions @ Jaguars	Lions ρ=1.1681	Lions* δ=10.5	Lions -3½
Cardinals @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.1662	Packers δ=6.8	Packers -11
Cowboys @ Falcons	Falcons ρ=1.1653	Falcons δ=5.4	Falcons -4
Ravens @ Browns	Ravens* ρ=1.1628	Ravens* δ=7.9	Ravens -3½
Dolphins @ Colts	Dolphins ρ=1.1248	Dolphins* δ=9.4	Dolphins -1½
Steelers @ Giants	Giants ρ=1.0793	Giants δ=9.7	Giants -3
Vikings @ Seahawks	Seahawks ρ=1.0688	Seahawks δ=3.9	Seahawks -5
Buccaneers @ Raiders	Buccaneers ρ=1.0547	Buccaneers* δ=11.4	Raiders -1
Eagles @ Saints	Eagles ρ=1.0458	Eagles* δ=0.0	Saints -3
Panthers @ Redskins	Redskins* ρ=1.0177	Redskins δ=0.2	Redskins -3

Bye: Patriots, 49ers, Jets, Rams

Comments:

• Only two split picks this week. All will rise and fall together.

• After the Packers struggled to put away the Jaguars last week, I'm not sure how confident I am that they can cover an 11-point line. On the other hand, John Skelton has played really poorly so far, and a couple touchdowns may be all it takes for the Packers to cover.

• Should the Ravens be on upset alert? They're on the road to a bad opponent, and the Browns took them to the wire when they played in Baltimore week 4.

• In spite of a bunch of tough opponents left on their schedule, the Dolphins could make it to 9 wins this year, if they keep playing at the level they've been at so far. But to do that, they will need to win some games on the road, especially against lesser opponents like the Colts.

• The Buccaneers have been in all of their games this year, including a close loss to the Giants. They might be able to beat the Raiders in Tampa, but flying cross-country to beat the Raiders in Oakland is a tall order for a team that has struggled to close out games all season long.

• In many of their games, the Saints' offense has been nearly as good as their defense has been bad. I think I have to go with the Line on this one—the Eagles haven't scored more than 24 points all season, and I don't think they can keep up in a shoot-out with the Saints.

NFL Week 8 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 8 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Colts (+10)

The Colts are clearly much, much better than they were last year. But they also have two close wins over a couple very bad teams (Browns, Titans), and a couple losses to two other bad teams (Jaguars, Jets). Winning record or not, that's not the resume of a team that belongs in the top half of the power rankings.

On the bubble

Cardinals (+6)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Panthers (-10)

The Panthers have had a lot of close losses (which long time readers will know is something APR likes more than it should). They were ahead late over both the Falcons and Bears. But the Panthers' uncanny ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory means they still only have a single win.

On the bubble

Jets (-6)

NFL Week 8 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (6-2)

Right:

Giants @ Cowboys
Patriots "@" Rams (London)
49ers @ Cardinals
Jaguars @ Packers
Panthers @ Bears
Saints @ Broncos

Wrong:

Buccaneers @ Vikings

A combination of bad punts and turnovers gave the Buccaneers a succession of short fields. And the Vikings complete inability to stop rookie running back Doug Martin meant that the Buccaneers were mostly able to convert those short fields into points. And while Adrian Peterson had a good day running the ball, too many of the Vikings' drives ended with punts or turnovers.

Chargers @ Browns

The Chargers have one of the worst offenses in the league this year. In this game, they only had two drives longer than 44 yards. The result was 6 punts, 2 turnovers on downs, and a lost fumble.

Split Picks: (APR: 5-1, SRS: 4-2, Line: 2-4)

A very nice week for APR, 4-1 picking against the Line

Falcons (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)

The post-game focus has been on Michael Vick's performance and whether the Eagles should switch to rookie QB Nick Foles. But Vick had a decent game here (191 yards passing, 42 yards rushing, 1 touchdown, and no turnovers). The Eagles' real problem (at least in this game) was their defense was utterly unable to stop the Falcons. Matt Ryan threw for 262 yards, 3 touchdowns, and only had 7 incompletions. The Falcons scored on their first 5 drives, and the Eagles offense couldn't keep up.

Raiders (APR, SRS) @ Chiefs (Line)

Matt Cassel is almost certainly a better quarterback than Brady Quinn. But either way the Chiefs go, they are a very bad team, and might not win another game this season.

Colts (APR, SRS) @ Titans (Line)

The good news for the Titans is their usually ineffective defense held the Colts to just 13 points through 4 quarters. The bad news is their usually ineffective offense couldn't do any better, and their defense gave up a game-winning touchdown drive in overtime.

Dolphins (APR, SRS) @ Jets (Line)

If anything went right for the Jets in this game, it isn't apparent from the stat sheets. A blocked punt gave the Dolphins their first touchdown. A lost fumble gave then a short field for a second, and a long runback gave them a short field for a third. Meanwhile, the Jets' offense struggled mightily. They didn't have a drive go more than 10 yards(!) until late in the first half, and that resulted in a blocked field goal attempt.

Seahawks (APR, SRS) @ Lions (Line)

The Seahawks managed to take a 3-point lead with 5:27 left in the game. One more stop might have been enough to win the game. But instead, their defense allowed the Lions to drive 80 yards for the go-ahead touchdown, and use almost all of the remaining game time. The remaining 15 seconds of game time simply wasn't enough for the Seahawks to answer.

Redskins (SRS) @ Steelers (APR, Line)

I assume SRS liked the Redskins here because they've scored a lot of points this season (6 games with 23+ points). But the Steelers defense was able to mostly neutralize RG3 (177 yards and 1 TD passing, and just 8 yards rushing). Meanwhile, the Steelers were able to score early and often on the Redskins not-very-good defense, and this game was pretty well over by halftime.

Totals

This week, it's the Line's turn to take a beating.

	This Week			This Season			%
APR	11	-	3	57	-	45	55.9%
SRS	10	-	4	57	-	45	55.9%
Line	8	-	6	64	-	38	62.7%

NFL Week 8 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑4)	Falcons	1.0507 (LW × 1.0215)	7-0	Won by 13 @ Eagles
2 (-)	Texans	1.0444 (LW × 0.9950)	6-1	Bye
3 (↓2)	Bears	1.0436 (LW × 0.9637)	6-1	Won by 1 vs Panthers
4 (↓1)	49ers	1.0363 (LW × 0.9975)	6-2	Won by 21 @ Cardinals
5 (↑2)	Giants	1.0284 (LW × 1.0247)	6-2	Won by 5 @ Cowboys
6 (↑2)	Broncos	1.0204 (LW × 1.0233)	4-3	Won by 20 vs Saints
7 (↓1)	Patriots	1.0197 (LW × 1.0150)	5-3	Won by 38 @ Rams
8 (↓4)	Packers	1.0045 (LW × 0.9675)	5-3	Won by 9 vs Jaguars
9 (-)	Seahawks	0.9652 (LW × 0.9703)	4-4	Lost by 4 @ Lions
10 (↑2)	Steelers	0.9528 (LW × 1.0324)	4-3	Won by 15 vs Redskins
11 (↑5)	Dolphins	0.9350 (LW × 1.0311)	4-3	Won by 21 @ Jets
12 (↑2)	Ravens	0.9218 (LW × 1.0070)	5-2	Bye
13 (↓3)	Vikings	0.9030 (LW × 0.9198)	5-3	Lost by 19 vs Buccaneers
14 (↑5)	Cowboys	0.9017 (LW × 1.0057)	3-4	Lost by 5 vs Giants
15 (↑3)	Lions	0.8954 (LW × 0.9883)	3-4	Won by 4 vs Seahawks
16 (↓1)	Redskins	0.8798 (LW × 0.9669)	3-5	Lost by 15 @ Steelers
17 (↑9)	Buccaneers	0.8757 (LW × 1.0734)	3-4	Won by 19 @ Vikings
18 (↓7)	Rams	0.8715 (LW × 0.9359)	3-5	Lost by 38 vs Patriots
19 (↓2)	Jets	0.8683 (LW × 0.9576)	3-5	Lost by 21 vs Dolphins
20 (↑4)	Panthers	0.8645 (LW × 1.0410)	1-6	Lost by 1 @ Bears
21 (↓1)	Eagles	0.8640 (LW × 0.9881)	3-4	Lost by 13 vs Falcons
22 (↓9)	Cardinals	0.8613 (LW × 0.9393)	4-4	Lost by 21 vs 49ers
23 (↓1)	Bengals	0.8505 (LW × 1.0150)	3-4	Bye
24 (↓3)	Chargers	0.8477 (LW × 0.9872)	3-4	Lost by 1 @ Browns
25 (↓2)	Colts	0.8312 (LW × 0.9944)	4-3	Won by 6 @ Titans
26 (↑3)	Raiders	0.8303 (LW × 1.0360)	3-4	Won by 10 @ Chiefs
27 (↓2)	Saints	0.8261 (LW × 0.9962)	2-5	Lost by 20 @ Broncos
28 (↓1)	Bills	0.8044 (LW × 0.9877)	3-4	Bye
29 (↓1)	Titans	0.7928 (LW × 0.9768)	3-5	Lost by 6 vs Colts
30 (-)	Browns	0.7927 (LW × 1.0293)	2-6	Won by 1 vs Chargers
31 (-)	Jaguars	0.7665 (LW × 1.0073)	1-6	Lost by 9 @ Packers
32 (-)	Chiefs	0.6919 (LW × 0.9967)	1-6	Lost by 10 vs Raiders

Comments:

• The Falcons finally get a turn in the #1 spot. They haven't had the toughest slate of opponents so far, but they are 7-0, and when most of the rest of the league has 3 losses or more, that counts for a lot.

• I didn't think that the Vikings were as good as their 5-2 record, but wow, that was an ugly loss. If they play that bad down the stretch, they may not get to 8 wins this year.

• I think it's safe to pencil in the Broncos to win the AFC West. They're only 4-3 right now, but the rest of their schedule is so easy, they might win out the rest of the way.

• The Steelers win back-to-back games for the first time this season. They've had some pretty rough losses, but after next week (at the Giants), they have a pretty soft schedule too, and (especially if they get healthy on defense) could run away with the AFC North.

• That 4-0 start by the Cardinals is starting to seem like a long time ago. How much longer can they stick with John Skelton as their starter? At this point, I'm not sure I see much of a down side to starting rookie Ryan Lindell, to at least see if he's worth developing, or if they should look for somebody in the draft next April.

NFL Week 8 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Jaguars @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.3643	Packers δ=21.4	Packers -13
Panthers @ Bears	Bears ρ=1.3039	Bears δ=16.0	Bears -9
Buccaneers @ Vikings	Vikings ρ=1.2035	Vikings δ=2.1	Vikings -6½
Saints @ Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.2024	Broncos δ=8.9	Broncos -6
Falcons @ Eagles	Falcons ρ=1.1763	Falcons* δ=9.8	Eagles -1½
Raiders @ Chiefs	Raiders ρ=1.1545	Raiders* δ=4.1	Chiefs -1
49ers @ Cardinals	49ers ρ=1.1330	49ers* δ=10.3	49ers -7
Giants @ Cowboys	Giants ρ=1.1194	Giants* δ=8.8	Giants -1
Chargers @ Browns	Chargers ρ=1.1149	Chargers* δ=5.7	Chargers -3
Seahawks @ Lions	Seahawks ρ=1.0979	Seahawks* δ=6.1	Lions -3
Patriots @ Rams	Patriots ρ=1.0789	Patriots* δ=3.5	Patriots -7
Colts @ Titans	Colts* ρ=1.0299	Colts* δ=6.1	Titans -3½
Redskins @ Steelers	Steelers ρ=1.0142	Redskins* δ=5.2	Steelers -5
Dolphins @ Jets	Dolphins* ρ=1.0000	Dolphins* δ=0.2	Jets -2½

Bye: Ravens, Bills, Texans, Bengals

Comments:

• Wow, week 8 already. Time flies.

• 4 of the Falcons' 6 wins have come against the not-very-impressive AFC West. So it's not a huge stretch to suppose the Eagles can give them their first loss. On the other hand, one of the reasons the Falcons have been winning is their defense has been getting lots of turnovers...

• So apparently Brady Quinn is now the Chiefs' starting quarterback. This is the guy who couldn't beat out Derek Anderson for the start in Cleveland, or Kyle Orton in Denver. Adjust your expectations accordingly.

• The Raiders have been pretty bad, but the Chiefs have been a disaster. I have no explanation for why the Line would favor the Chiefs this week.

• APR rates Dolphins @ Jets a full-on toss up (well, at least out to 4 decimal places). If the Jets win, they'll have the head-to-head sweep over the Dolphins, which means the Dolphins will have a very hard time finishing better than 3rd in the AFC East this year.

• Can the Lions beat the Seahawks? They really haven't looked very good this year, and will be facing another stout defense. The good news for the Lions is the Seahawks aren't nearly as good on the road, and if they can score 21 points, that could be more than the offensively-challenged Seahawks can match.

NFL Week 7 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 7 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Ravens (+8)

The Ravens' offense has never been anything special, and as long as their defense is giving up 30 points a game, they just don't belong in the top 10.

Eagles (+7)

The Eagles increased slightly in power on their bye week, but APR dropped them 3 places anyway. Given their 3-3 record, and habit of turning the ball over on offense, I think I like APR's ranking (#20) better than ESPN's (#13) too.

On the bubble

Nobody closer than +5 (Saints, Giants)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Rams (-10)

On their home loss to the Packers, APR holds the Rams steady, and ESPN drops them a spot. APR continues to have them too high (but how does ESPN have the Lions and Saints ranked over them??)

Jets (-7)

I can't work up a lot of enthusiasm to talk up the Jets, but a) they did take the Texans and Patriots to the wire the last two weeks, and b) they are 3-4, and only a game out of first place in the division. The Jets are another team ESPN has inexplicably ranked under the Lions and Saints.

On the bubble

Nobody closer than -5 (Panthers)

NFL Week 7 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (7-1)

Right:

Cowboys @ Panthers
Packers @ Rams
Redskins @ Giants
Ravens @ Texans
Jaguars @ Raiders
Jets @ Patriots
Lions @ Bears

Wrong:

Titans @ Bills

This was a defense-optional game, with both teams combining for 772 yards of total offense. Buffalo scored 7 times, but twice settled for field goals. That, along with a critical late turnover, was the difference in the game.

Split Picks: (APR: 1-4, SRS: 2-3, Line: 5-0)

The Line gets all split picks right!

Saints (Line) @ Buccaneers (APR, SRS)

The Saints' had their best offensive effort of the season (458 total yards and 5 touchdowns). The Saints' defense did manage a critical goal line stand, but their overall numbers (513 total yards, 4 touchdowns, and no turnovers) suggest that they still have a long ways to go to be in contention.

Steelers (SRS, Line) @ Bengals (APR)

I think Tony Dungy was right in the pre-game when he said the Bengals' lack of a legitimate second receiver is a problem for them. The Steelers' defense was able to make A.J. Green a complete non-factor, and the Bengals didn't have anyone else to step up in response.

Browns (SRS) @ Colts (APR, Line)

There was a lot of offensive futility for both teams in this game. 13 combined drives ended with a punt, turnover on downs, or the half ending. This was a coin-flip game, and could've gone either way. The Colts managed 3 scoring drives which gave them the edge over the Browns' 2 scores.

Seahawks (APR) @ 49ers (SRS, Line)

Facing a good defense, Russell Wilson was back to his old self. A 39% completion rate and just 122 yards passing meant that only two of the Seahawks' drives went longer than 37 yards. The 49ers didn't do a lot better, but their strong defense meant that 13 points was enough to get them by the Seahawks.

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Vikings (Line)

The Cardinals had their chances in this game, and their defense held Christian Ponder largely in check. But they couldn't stop Adrian Peterson (153 yards rushing), and couldn't overcome their own troubles on offense, including 7 sacks and a disasterous interception returned for a touchdown.

Totals

	This Week			This Season			%
APR	8	-	5	46	-	42	52.3%
SRS	9	-	4	47	-	41	53.4%
Line	12	-	1	56	-	32	63.6%

NFL Week 7 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Bears	1.0829 (LW × 0.9828)	5-1	Won by 6 vs Lions
2 (↑5)	Texans	1.0497 (LW × 1.0556)	6-1	Won by 30 vs Ravens
3 (↑3)	49ers	1.0389 (LW × 1.0436)	5-2	Won by 7 vs Seahawks
4 (↑4)	Packers	1.0382 (LW × 1.0545)	4-3	Won by 10 @ Rams
5 (↓1)	Falcons	1.0286 (LW × 1.0090)	6-0	Bye
6 (↓1)	Patriots	1.0046 (LW × 0.9859)	4-3	Won by 3 vs Jets
7 (↓4)	Giants	1.0036 (LW × 0.9831)	5-2	Won by 4 vs Redskins
8 (↑1)	Broncos	0.9971 (LW × 1.0299)	3-3	Bye
9 (↓7)	Seahawks	0.9947 (LW × 0.9667)	4-3	Lost by 7 @ 49ers
10 (↑3)	Vikings	0.9818 (LW × 1.0559)	5-2	Won by 7 vs Cardinals
11 (-)	Rams	0.9312 (LW × 0.9683)	3-4	Lost by 10 vs Packers
12 (↑9)	Steelers	0.9229 (LW × 1.0678)	3-3	Won by 7 @ Bengals
13 (↓1)	Cardinals	0.9170 (LW × 0.9637)	4-3	Lost by 7 @ Vikings
14 (↓4)	Ravens	0.9154 (LW × 0.9517)	5-2	Lost by 30 @ Texans
15 (↑1)	Redskins	0.9099 (LW × 1.0080)	3-4	Lost by 4 @ Giants
16 (↓1)	Dolphins	0.9068 (LW × 1.0004)	3-3	Bye
17 (↑2)	Jets	0.9068 (LW × 1.0387)	3-4	Lost by 3 @ Patriots
18 (↑4)	Lions	0.9060 (LW × 1.0555)	2-4	Lost by 6 @ Bears
19 (↓5)	Cowboys	0.8966 (LW × 0.9821)	3-3	Won by 5 @ Panthers
20 (↓3)	Eagles	0.8744 (LW × 1.0005)	3-3	Bye
21 (↑4)	Chargers	0.8586 (LW × 1.0329)	3-3	Bye
22 (↓4)	Bengals	0.8380 (LW × 0.9592)	3-4	Lost by 7 vs Steelers
23 (↑3)	Colts	0.8359 (LW × 1.0247)	3-3	Won by 4 vs Browns
24 (↓1)	Panthers	0.8305 (LW × 0.9784)	1-5	Lost by 5 vs Cowboys
25 (↑3)	Saints	0.8293 (LW × 1.0635)	2-4	Won by 7 @ Buccaneers
26 (↓6)	Buccaneers	0.8158 (LW × 0.9350)	2-4	Lost by 7 vs Saints
27 (↓3)	Bills	0.8145 (LW × 0.9720)	3-4	Lost by 1 vs Titans
28 (↑2)	Titans	0.8116 (LW × 1.0758)	3-4	Won by 1 @ Bills
29 (-)	Raiders	0.8015 (LW × 1.0329)	2-4	Won by 3 vs Jaguars
30 (↓3)	Browns	0.7702 (LW × 0.9799)	1-6	Lost by 4 @ Colts
31 (-)	Jaguars	0.7610 (LW × 1.0172)	1-5	Lost by 3 @ Raiders
32 (-)	Chiefs	0.6942 (LW × 0.9953)	1-5	Bye

Comments:

• The Bears sure looked unimpressive in their win over the Lions. +4 on turnovers, and they barely managed 13 points? Wow.

• Is that it for the Lions' season? 4 losses with 10 games left to play is a pretty deep hole to be in, Even a relatively strong 7-3 finish would leave them at 9-7, and likely out of the playoffs.

• The Ravens' defense is really bad. And their offense is in no shape to take up the slack. And their road woes continue; that 9-6 victory over the Chiefs is their only win outside of Baltimore this season.

• Possibly excepting the Texans, the whole AFC seems amazingly weak right now. The Ravens' just suffered one of the worst losses in franchise history, the Patriots are the only other team over .500 (thanks to a less-than-impressive overtime win over the offensively-challenged Jets).

• Looking at the the AFC teams at or below .500... Peyton Manning probably makes the Broncos better than their 3-3 record. And, thanks to their best defensive performance of the season, the Steelers looked better than their 2-3 record Sunday night.

• The Packers are now 3-1 in their last 4, and it looks like their offense is finally back on track. Even without Charles Woodson, they should have a good shot at 6-3 going into their bye. But with the Bears at 5-1 and the Vikings at 5-2, they could very easily still be 3rd in the NFC North into December.

NFL Per-Franchise Passing Leaders

After Ben Roethlisberger overtook Terry Bradshaw as the Steelers quarterback with the most passing yards, I was inspired to take a look at how things stand for all the NFL franchises. Here's the results:

Franchise	Yards	Yds/start	QB
Packers	61655	253.0	Brett Favre (*)
Dolphins	61361	240.0	Dan Marino (+)
Colts	54828	214.0	Peyton Manning (*)
Broncos	51475	231.0	John Elway (+)
Chargers	43040	171.0	Dan Fouts (+)
Patriots	41824	164.0	Tom Brady (*)
Bills	35467	140.4	Jim Kelly (+)
49ers	35124	182.6	Joe Montana (+)
Cardinals	34639	164.6	Jim Hart
Titans	33685	173.0	Warren Moon (+)
Giants	33462	167.6	Phil Simms
Vikings	33098	143.0	Fran Tarkenton (+)
Cowboys	32942	199.6	Troy Aikman (+)
Eagles	32873	231.5	Donovan McNabb
Bengals	32838	190.9	Ken Anderson
Saints	30114	301.1	Drew Brees
Seahawks	29434	224.7	Matt Hasselbeck
Chiefs	28507	181.6	Len Dawson (+)
Steelers	28066	237.8	Ben Roethlisberger
Jets	27057	214.7	Joe Namath (+)
Jaguars	25698	219.6	Mark Brunell
Redskins	25206	203.3	Joe Theismann
Rams	23758	226.3	Jim Everett
Browns	23713	213.6	Brian Sipe
Falcons	23470	194.0	Steve Bartkowski
Panthers	19258	214.0	Jake Delhomme
Raiders	19078	198.7	Ken Stabler
Texans	18297	261.4	Matt Schaub
Lions	15710	184.8	Bobby Layne (+)
Ravens	15506	224.7	Joe Flacco
Buccaneers	14820	205.8	Vinny Testaverde
Bears	14686	114.7	Sid Luckman (+)

Comments:

• Players marked with a (+) are in the Hall of Fame. Players marked with a (*) are certain to get in easily when the time comes. Players in bold are the current starters for the indicated team.

• Also note that these are franchise records; Favre has more career passing yards than that, but only including his time with the Jets and Vikings.

• Some time later this season, Aaron Rodgers should make it a third of the way to Brett Favre's total with the Packers.

• There are a number of franchise records that are close to being broken, and should fall in the next couple years. For each of the following, you should assume a caveat of "assuming they remain healthy and don't get benched".

• Eli Manning should pass Phil Simms for the Giants' record sometime next year.

• Matt Ryan is about two years from passing Steve Bartkowski for the Falcons' record.

• Matt Stafford is about two years away from Bobby Layne's record for the Lions.

• Josh Freeman (again, assuming he doesn't get benched) should pass Vinny Testaverde's record for the Bucs next year.

• Jay Cutler is about 19 games from passing Sid Luckman's record for the Bears.

NFL Week 7 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Lions @ Bears	Bears ρ=1.2837	Bears δ=17.1	Bears -5½
Jets @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.1672	Patriots δ=9.9	Patriots -10½
Redskins @ Giants	Giants* ρ=1.1309	Giants δ=10.6	Giants -6½
Saints @ Buccaneers	Buccaneers ρ=1.1189	Buccaneers δ=8.7	Saints -2½
Titans @ Bills	Bills ρ=1.1107	Bills δ=5.2	Bills -3
Cowboys @ Panthers	Cowboys ρ=1.0755	Cowboys* δ=5.2	Cowboys -1
Browns @ Colts	Colts ρ=1.0379	Browns* δ=1.4	Colts -3
Jaguars @ Raiders	Raiders* ρ=1.0372	Raiders δ=1.0	Raiders -4
Ravens @ Texans	Texans ρ=1.0338	Texans δ=2.5	Texans -6½
Seahawks @ 49ers	Seahawks ρ=1.0336	49ers δ=3.9	49ers -7
Packers @ Rams	Packers* ρ=1.0238	Packers* δ=4.0	Packers -5½
Cardinals @ Vikings	Cardinals* ρ=1.0233	Cardinals* δ=2.4	Vikings -6
Steelers @ Bengals	Bengals ρ=1.0109	Steelers* δ=0.7	Steelers -1

Bye: Eagles, Falcons, Chargers, Chiefs, Dolphins, Broncos

Comments:

• The good news for the Lions is they didn't have any special teams disasters last week. The bad news is, a loss to the Bears would drop them to 2-4, with 2 losses in the division. As close to a must-win game as it gets in the first half of the season.

• The last time the Jets won a regular season game in Foxboro, their quarterback was Brett Favre.

• In the Giants' four wins, they've held their opponents at or under 84 yards rushing, and forced at least 2 turnovers per game. In their two losses, they've allowed at least 143 yards rushing, and only forced one turnover total. This could be a problem this week, as the Redskins have rushed for at least 129 yards in every game this season, and mostly haven't turned the ball over.

• The Ravens didn't look particularly good in their win over the Cowboys. This week, facing a good Texans team smarting over their prime-time loss to the Packers, they could be in for a tough beat-down.

• The Cardinals' Kevin Kolb will reportedly miss at leat a couple games with a rib injury. Assuming John Skelton starts this week, he's going to have to do a lot better than he did at the end of last week's game. The Cardinals' 3rd QB is rookie Ryan Lindley, who appeared to be at least servicable in preseason. He might be seeing his first regular season action this Sunday.

• The Steelers will be without Troy Polamalu again this Sunday. If the Bengals are going to content for a playoff spot again this year, this is a game they need to win.

NFL Week 6 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 6 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Chargers (+9)

ESPN and APR both drop the Chargers a couple spots on their loss to the Broncos. And the Chargers look even less like a top-16 team.

Steelers (+7)

The Steelers have tallied a 2-3 record against teams that are all 3-3 or worse. The only thing that indicates they belong in the top half of the power rankings is last year's reputation.

On the bubble

Ravens (+6)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Rams (-9)

APR and ESPN both drop the Rams 2 spots on their loss to the Dolphins. On the one hand, APR still has them too high at #11. On the other hand, if their offense ever gets going, they could be a very dangerous team.

Seahawks (-7)

At some point, you would think the Seahawks' lack of offense would hurt them, but for now a home victory over the Patriots gets them to 4 wins, and a (probably too high) #2 ranking by APR.

On the bubble

Nobody closer than -5 (Bears, Panthers)

NFL Week 6 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (3-6)

Right:

Raiders @ Falcons
Chiefs @ Buccaneers
Cowboys @ Ravens

Wrong:

Bills @ Cardinals

Thanks to 182 rushing yards, the Cardinals had 332 yards from scrimmage, the most in any game this season. But 5 sacks, a sub-50% completion rating, and 67 penalty yards meant those yards only translated into 16 points. Somehow, the Cardinals might have won anyway, if John Skelton's numbers (2/10 45 yards, 1 int) were even a little less awful (or if Jay Feely had not doinked a chip-shot field goal attempt).

Giants @ 49ers

The formula for beating the 49ers seems pretty clear: stop the run (the 49ers had 80 yards rushing, lowest total of the season), and force turnovers (Alex Smith was intercepted 3 times, all deep in 49ers territory). As usual, when the Giant's defense plays well, they are very tough to beat.

Packers @ Texans

The Texans were certainly missing Brian Cushing on defense, and they played a pretty sloppy game including some critical penalties. But the fact is, when the Packers are playing well on offense and defense, and execute for a whole game, they can be trouble for any team in the league.

Bengals @ Browns

The Browns most competitive games have been when the defense has gotton turnovers or stopped the run. In this game, both of those came together (they allowed a season-low 76 yards rushing, and got 4 turnovers). That, along with a decent day by the offense was enough for the Browns first win of the year.

Steelers @ Titans

Especially without guys like Troy Polamalu, the Steelers' defense is pretty bad. In Steelers's two wins this season, they've held their opponent to 14 or fewer points. In their three losses, they've allowed 26 or more. The Steelers join the Lions as the only teams this season to allow the Titans to score more than 14 points.

Patriots @ Seahawks

Bad: six trips to the redzone for the Patriots produced one touchdown and 4 field goals. Worse: the Patriots defense allowed Russell Wilson the best game of his rookie season, throwing for 3 touchdowns and nearly 300 yards.

Split Picks: (APR: 1-4, SRS: 2-3, Line: 3-2)

Vikings (APR, SRS) @ Redskins (Line)

The Vikings had two major problems in this game: 1) they let Robert Griffin III run his offense up and down the field, scoring mostly touchdowns, and 2) the Vikings offense settled for 4 field goals, in spite of getting in the red zone on all 4 of those drives.

Rams (APR, SRS) @ Dolphins (Line)

Sam Bradford actually passed for 315 yards and a 66.7% completion rate. But 3 sacks and 94 penalty yards meant most of the Rams' drives ended short of the goal line, and with 3 missed field goals.

Eagles (APR, Line) @ Lions (SRS)

In spite of more turnovers, the Eagles had a 10-point lead with 5 minutes left to play. But their defense couldn't hold the Lions from a couple long scoring drives to tie the game. When the Lions got the ball in overtime (thanks to another turnover), they had a relatively easy time driving into field goal range for the win.

Colts (APR, SRS) @ Jets (Line)

This is what the Colts look like when they face a good defense for a full game. They only managed to get to the red zone twice, and only got one field goal as a result. Meanwhile, the Colts defense let the Jets run up and down the field, and ultimately, run away with an easy win.

Broncos (APR, SRS) @ Chargers (Line)

Thanks to 3 first-half turnovers, the Broncos spotted the Chargers an easy 17 point lead. All that changed after halftime. In the second half, every Charger drive except one ended in a turnover (two of which were returned for touchdowns), and the Broncos drove the field for 3 other touchdowns. Just a disasterous collapse on the part of San Diego.

Totals

Another bad day all around, though particularly so for APR.

	This Week			This Season			%
APR	4	-	10	38	-	37	50.7%
SRS	5	-	9	38	-	37	50.7%
Line	6	-	8	44	-	31	58.7%

NFL Week 6 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Bears	1.1018 (LW × 0.9927)	4-1	Bye
2 (↑5)	Seahawks	1.0289 (LW × 1.0272)	4-2	Won by 1 vs Patriots
3 (↑11)	Giants	1.0208 (LW × 1.1263)	4-2	Won by 23 @ 49ers
4 (-)	Falcons	1.0193 (LW × 0.9699)	6-0	Won by 3 vs Raiders
5 (-)	Patriots	1.0190 (LW × 0.9959)	3-3	Lost by 1 @ Seahawks
6 (↓3)	49ers	0.9954 (LW × 0.9363)	4-2	Lost by 23 vs Giants
7 (↓5)	Texans	0.9943 (LW × 0.9130)	5-1	Lost by 18 vs Packers
8 (↑4)	Packers	0.9846 (LW × 1.0583)	3-3	Won by 18 @ Texans
9 (↑1)	Broncos	0.9682 (LW × 1.0027)	3-3	Won by 11 @ Chargers
10 (↑1)	Ravens	0.9618 (LW × 1.0082)	5-1	Won by 2 vs Cowboys
11 (↓2)	Rams	0.9617 (LW × 0.9839)	3-3	Lost by 3 @ Dolphins
12 (↓6)	Cardinals	0.9515 (LW × 0.9403)	4-2	Lost by 3 vs Bills
13 (↓5)	Vikings	0.9299 (LW × 0.9319)	4-2	Lost by 12 @ Redskins
14 (↑6)	Cowboys	0.9129 (LW × 1.0571)	2-3	Lost by 2 @ Ravens
15 (-)	Dolphins	0.9064 (LW × 1.0025)	3-3	Won by 3 vs Rams
16 (↑3)	Redskins	0.9027 (LW × 1.0440)	3-3	Won by 12 vs Vikings
17 (-)	Eagles	0.8740 (LW × 0.9856)	3-3	Lost by 3 vs Lions
18 (↓5)	Bengals	0.8736 (LW × 0.9637)	3-3	Lost by 10 @ Browns
19 (↑2)	Jets	0.8730 (LW × 1.0151)	3-3	Won by 26 vs Colts
20 (↑5)	Buccaneers	0.8725 (LW × 1.0803)	2-3	Won by 28 vs Chiefs
21 (↓5)	Steelers	0.8642 (LW × 0.9691)	2-3	Lost by 3 @ Titans
22 (-)	Lions	0.8583 (LW × 1.0094)	2-3	Won by 3 @ Eagles
23 (↑1)	Panthers	0.8488 (LW × 1.0438)	1-4	Bye
24 (↑3)	Bills	0.8379 (LW × 1.0673)	3-3	Won by 3 @ Cardinals
25 (↓2)	Chargers	0.8313 (LW × 0.9825)	3-3	Lost by 11 vs Broncos
26 (↓8)	Colts	0.8157 (LW × 0.9273)	2-3	Lost by 26 @ Jets
27 (↑4)	Browns	0.7859 (LW × 1.0871)	1-5	Won by 10 vs Bengals
28 (-)	Saints	0.7798 (LW × 1.0220)	1-4	Bye
29 (↑1)	Raiders	0.7759 (LW × 1.0467)	1-4	Lost by 3 @ Falcons
30 (↓1)	Titans	0.7544 (LW × 1.0069)	2-4	Won by 3 vs Steelers
31 (↓5)	Jaguars	0.7481 (LW × 0.9463)	1-4	Bye
32 (-)	Chiefs	0.6975 (LW × 0.9919)	1-5	Lost by 28 @ Buccaneers

Comments:

• I'm not sure how much I buy the Bears and (especially) the Seahawks at the top of this list, but it's not like there's anyone really dominating the league right now.

• The Giants get a convincing win against a quality opponent. But it's only their second win where they didn't start in (at least) a 14-point hole. They really need to be more consistent to stay atop the NFC East.

• Except for the Ravens and Texans, every AFC team is 3-3 or worse right now.

• The Ravens' defense really has fallen off from last season, so the loss of Ray Lewis is really bad news for them. The good news is that Terrell Suggs is (reportedly) nearly ready to come back, but even if he's fully recovered, I wonder how close to game shape he is right now.

• Every team in the NFC West is 4-2 (except the Rams, who are 3-3). And, it spite of what has seemed like pretty unremarkable offensive production, every QB in the division has a relatively high passer rating (A.Smith 96.6, R.Wilson 85.6, K.Kolb 86.1, S.Bradford 81.3). Only Alex Smith's falls in the top 16, though.

NFL Week 6 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Raiders @ Falcons	Falcons ρ=1.4177	Falcons δ=23.1	Falcons -9
Bills @ Cardinals	Cardinals ρ=1.2888	Cardinals δ=18.5	Cardinals -4½
Bengals @ Browns	Bengals ρ=1.2539	Bengals* δ=6.0	Bengals -1
Steelers @ Titans	Steelers* ρ=1.1902	Steelers* δ=10.8	Steelers -5
Giants @ 49ers	49ers ρ=1.1731	49ers δ=11.4	49ers -5
Packers @ Texans	Texans ρ=1.1707	Texans δ=3.9	Texans -3½
Vikings @ Redskins	Vikings ρ=1.1540	Vikings* δ=8.0	Redskins -1½
Chiefs @ Buccaneers	Buccaneers ρ=1.1485	Buccaneers δ=9.5	Buccaneers -3
Broncos @ Chargers	Broncos ρ=1.1412	Broncos* δ=9.2	Chargers -1
Cowboys @ Ravens	Ravens ρ=1.1046	Ravens δ=3.7	Ravens -3½
Rams @ Dolphins	Rams* ρ=1.0809	Rams* δ=7.4	Dolphins -3
Lions @ Eagles	Eagles ρ=1.0429	Lions* δ=3.7	Eagles -4½
Colts @ Jets	Colts* ρ=1.0229	Colts* δ=5.6	Jets -3
Patriots @ Seahawks	Patriots* ρ=1.0215	Patriots* δ=2.2	Patriots -3½

Bye: Jaguars, Saints, Bears, Panthers

Comments:

• This is the first game since the 2010 playoffs the Packers haven't been favored by the line.

• The Bills @ Cardinals game feels like one the Cardinals could run away with, especially if they get some scores on defense and special teams.

• The Giants could have a tough time this week. They needed overtime (and a couple recovered fumbles) to beat the 49ers in the playoffs last season, and the 49ers seem to be much improved since then.

• Colts over the Jets is an interesting upset pick. Even with Revis out, the Jets' defensive problems have been more with rushing than passing. I wonder if the Colts will be willing to go with a more run-heavy game plan to try to exploit that?

NFL Week 5 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 5 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Chargers (+9)

The 3 teams the Chargers have beaten are a combined 3-11. They also got crushed by the Falcons, and gave the Saints their first win. Really not an impressive resume. The Chargers simply don't deserve a spot in the top half of the power rankings.

Ravens (+7)

APR dropped the Ravens 8 spots after their very unimpressive 9-6 win over a Chiefs team that the Falcons, Bills, and Chargers had all put away easily. The Ravens should bounce back with some more impressive wins, or if the Chiefs ever win another game.

Giants (+7)

APR moved the Giants up 2 spots on their victory over the Browns, but ESPN moved them up 3, so the gap is one spot wider this week. The Giants really need to beat somebody with a better record than 1-3 before they will go much higher in APR.

Cowboys (+7)

I'm not sure how ESPN can justify the Cowboys at #13. Even if you like their wins over the Giants and Buccaneers, they got destroyed by the Seahawks and Bears. They just don't belong anywhere close to the top 10 right now.

On the bubble

Steelers (+6), Eagles (+6)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Seahawks (-9)

The Seahawks' offense is pretty awful, but they have managed to scrape together 3 wins, and their two losses are by a combined 10 points.

Rams (-9)

Especially given Sam Bradford's performance Thursday night (7/21, 141 yards, 2 tds, 1 int), I will stipulate that APR has them way too high at #9. But the Rams are clearly better than last year.

Broncos (-7)

The score margin in the Broncos losses (-6 to the Falcons, -6 to the Texans, -10 to the Patriots) look closer than they really are, and so APR is giving the Broncos more power than they really deserve. I wonder if Peyton Manning is wishing he could go back in time, and pick a team with a better defense?

On the bubble

Nobody closer than -5 (Bears, Jaguars)

NFL Week 5 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (7-2)

Right:

Ravens @ Chiefs
Bears @ Jaguars
Falcons @ Redskins
Texans @ Jets
Bills @ 49ers
Titans @ Vikings
Browns @ Giants

Wrong:

Cardinals @ Rams

Ladies and gentlemen, the Cardinals offense: three trips into the red zone, with nothing to show for it. A 56% completion rate, nine sacks, and a missed field goal. Still, they were in it until late, and could've come away with a 12-10 win except the Cardinals' defense somehow let Sam Bradford (who mostly had a very poor night) throw a couple touchdown passes, the second one finally putting the game out of reach.

Packers @ Colts

Something happened to the Packers (injuries perhaps), and they just collapsed in the second half of this game. The offense couldn't move the ball (their longest 2nd-half drive was 49 yards), and the defense couldn't stop the Colts offense at all. As a result, they got outscored 27-6, and went home with yet another loss.

Split Picks: (APR: 2-3, SRS: 2-3, Line: 3-2)

Seahawks (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)

The Seahawks' defense shut down the Panthers. The Panthers had 4 drives that posted negative yardage, and only 3 drives that went longer than 16 yards. The Seahawks offense didn't light things up, but with a defensive performance like that, they didn't need to.

Dolphins (SRS) @ Bengals (APR, Line)

Do the Dolphins have a good defense? They sure did a good job of stopping the Bengals in this game: 6 punts, 2 interceptions and a lost fumble meant that way too many of the Bengals' drives ended without a score. The Dolphins' offense wasn't spectacular, but it was good enough to stay ahead of the Bengals.

Eagles (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)

Turnovers finally cost the Eagles a close game. An early Eagles' fumble lost in the end-zone cost them at least a field goal, and probably a touchdown. An absolutely critical error in a close game like this one.

Broncos (SRS) @ Patriots (APR, Line)

For the Broncos, a couple of crushing turnovers, and a general lack of defensive production let the Patriots sprint out to a 31-7 lead. The Broncos managed something of a late come-back, but it was probably too little, too late, even before a late lost fumble put an end to it.

Chargers (APR, SRS) @ Saints (Line)

The Saints' offense is still very good; their problem has been their defense has been unable to hold a lead. This time, the Saints' defense managed to hold the Chargers scoreless for most of the second half, which allowed their offense to erase a 10-point deficit, pull ahead, and secure their first win of the season.

Totals

	This Week			This Season			%
APR	9	-	5	34	-	27	55.7%
SRS	9	-	5	33	-	28	54.1%
Line	10	-	4	38	-	23	62.3%

NFL Week 5 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑5)	Bears	1.1099 (LW × 1.0587)	4-1	Won by 38 @ Jaguars
2 (↓1)	Texans	1.0891 (LW × 0.9608)	5-0	Won by 6 @ Jets
3 (↑2)	49ers	1.0632 (LW × 1.0126)	4-1	Won by 42 vs Bills
4 (↑3)	Falcons	1.0509 (LW × 1.0229)	5-0	Won by 7 @ Redskins
5 (↓1)	Patriots	1.0231 (LW × 0.9703)	3-2	Won by 10 vs Broncos
6 (↓4)	Cardinals	1.0119 (LW × 0.9040)	4-1	Lost by 14 @ Rams
7 (↑1)	Seahawks	1.0016 (LW × 0.9996)	3-2	Won by 4 @ Panthers
8 (↑3)	Vikings	0.9978 (LW × 1.0089)	4-1	Won by 23 vs Titans
9 (↑8)	Rams	0.9774 (LW × 1.1053)	3-2	Won by 14 vs Cardinals
10 (↓1)	Broncos	0.9656 (LW × 0.9691)	2-3	Lost by 10 @ Patriots
11 (↓8)	Ravens	0.9540 (LW × 0.9027)	4-1	Won by 3 @ Chiefs
12 (↑1)	Packers	0.9303 (LW × 1.0206)	2-3	Lost by 3 @ Colts
13 (↓3)	Bengals	0.9065 (LW × 0.9140)	3-2	Lost by 4 vs Dolphins
14 (↑2)	Giants	0.9063 (LW × 1.0185)	3-2	Won by 14 vs Browns
15 (-)	Dolphins	0.9042 (LW × 1.0066)	2-3	Won by 4 @ Bengals
16 (↑2)	Steelers	0.8918 (LW × 1.0140)	2-2	Won by 2 vs Eagles
17 (↓5)	Eagles	0.8868 (LW × 0.9268)	3-2	Lost by 2 @ Steelers
18 (↑4)	Colts	0.8797 (LW × 1.0527)	2-2	Won by 3 vs Packers
19 (-)	Redskins	0.8646 (LW × 1.0135)	2-3	Lost by 7 vs Falcons
20 (-)	Cowboys	0.8636 (LW × 1.0254)	2-2	Bye
21 (-)	Jets	0.8600 (LW × 1.0276)	2-3	Lost by 6 vs Texans
22 (↑1)	Lions	0.8503 (LW × 1.0231)	1-3	Bye
23 (↓9)	Chargers	0.8461 (LW × 0.9410)	3-2	Lost by 7 @ Saints
24 (↑4)	Panthers	0.8132 (LW × 1.0543)	1-4	Lost by 4 vs Seahawks
25 (↑1)	Buccaneers	0.8077 (LW × 1.0269)	1-3	Bye
26 (↓2)	Jaguars	0.7905 (LW × 0.9570)	1-4	Lost by 38 vs Bears
27 (↓2)	Bills	0.7851 (LW × 0.9883)	2-3	Lost by 42 @ 49ers
28 (↑3)	Saints	0.7630 (LW × 1.1087)	1-4	Won by 7 vs Chargers
29 (-)	Titans	0.7492 (LW × 0.9734)	1-4	Lost by 23 @ Vikings
30 (-)	Raiders	0.7413 (LW × 0.9855)	1-3	Bye
31 (↓4)	Browns	0.7230 (LW × 0.9214)	0-5	Lost by 14 @ Giants
32 (-)	Chiefs	0.7032 (LW × 1.0541)	1-4	Lost by 3 vs Ravens

Comments:

• The Bears are probably benefiting more than they should from their blow-out win over the hapless Jaguars. Still, 4 wins is more than a lot of the rest of the league can lay claim to.

• Every team the Packers have played this season won this weekend, so they rise in power and rank, in spite of a very ugly loss to the lowly Colts.

• What is the deal with the Ravens and road games at bad teams? 3 points over a pretty awful Chiefs squad is not impressive. At least they didn't lose.

• The Saints are still on pace to break the 1981 Colts' record of 6793 yards allowed on defense. They need to average at least 425 yards per game, and have only been below that level once so far.

• The Titans and Bills are on pace to break the 1981 Colts' record of 533 points allowed (and the Saints are close). An average of 34 points per game will break the record. The Titans held their opponent under 34 points for the first time on Sunday.

NFL Q1 Strength of Schedule

This table is APR's first quarter strength of schedule results. Each team's "unplayed" strength of schedule was computed by combining the power index value of every team remaining on the schedule (using the week 4 power index values of each team). Similarly, the "played" strength of schedule was computed using the power index of teams already played.

A higher value indicates tougher opponents, and therefore a harder schedule. Teams are ranked from hardest schedule (#1) to easiest (#32).

Rank	Team	SOS unplayed	Rank	SOS played
1	Lions	0.9797	17	0.9138
2	Rams	0.9658	13	0.9270
3	Bills	0.9422	29	0.8227
4	49ers	0.9418	19	0.8934
5	Seahawks	0.9404	10	0.9344
6	Cardinals	0.9378	2	0.9833
7	Vikings	0.9330	20	0.8816
8	Jets	0.9285	16	0.9194
9	Bears	0.9268	23	0.8670
10	Patriots	0.9225	15	0.9195
11	Packers	0.9214	11	0.9317
12	Titans	0.9048	5	0.9575
13	Redskins	0.9040	27	0.8267
14	Giants	0.9021	25	0.8333
15	Dolphins	0.9012	3	0.9784
16	Saints	0.8935	32	0.7879
17	Texans	0.8930	21	0.8802
18	Jaguars	0.8872	1	0.9851
19	Cowboys	0.8860	14	0.9241
20	Chiefs	0.8854	28	0.8232
21	Ravens	0.8832	9	0.9400
22	Browns	0.8817	8	0.9436
23	Bengals	0.8808	22	0.8735
24	Steelers	0.8723	18	0.8999
25	Colts	0.8682	7	0.9503
26	Panthers	0.8673	26	0.8319
27	Chargers	0.8543	31	0.8017
28	Buccaneers	0.8498	24	0.8345
29	Eagles	0.8497	6	0.9539
30	Raiders	0.8275	12	0.9282
31	Falcons	0.8270	30	0.8107
32	Broncos	0.8162	4	0.9705

Comments:

• More bad news for the Lions. Their schedule doesn't look that bad. I think it's just more there really aren't many easy opponents on it (and given the way the Lions lost to the Titans and Vikings, I'm not sure what would qualify as an easy opponent for them).

• It won't be getting easier for the Jets, either. They still have 3 more games against the NFC West, none of which look like push-overs anymore.

• The Bills have the biggest swing from easiest to hardest. Which is not good news for a team that's only beaten the Chiefs and Browns so far.

• Are the Eagles the best team in the NFC East? They're the only team (so far) to have a win outside the division and bad NFC South teams. If they can stop the turnovers, they could have an easy path to winning the NFC East.

• The Falcons are benefitting from a (so far) pretty weak division. APR has the Buccaneers, Panthers, and Saints all in the bottom 5 teams, and the Falcons sill have 5 divisional games left to play.

• The Broncos have the biggest swing from hardest to easiest. They have yet to play the Saints, Panthers, Chiefs (twice), Buccaneers, and Browns. So, yeah. Peyton Manning should have a chance to make another playoff run this year.

NFL Week 5 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Ravens @ Chiefs	Ravens ρ=1.6204	Ravens* δ=26.1	Ravens -4½
Texans @ Jets	Texans ρ=1.3446	Texans* δ=23.0	Texans -9
Bills @ 49ers	49ers ρ=1.3297	49ers δ=17.0	49ers -9½
Seahawks @ Panthers	Seahawks ρ=1.3102	Seahawks* δ=15.0	Panthers -2½
Titans @ Vikings	Vikings ρ=1.3059	Vikings δ=15.1	Vikings -5½
Cardinals @ Rams	Cardinals ρ=1.2782	Cardinals* δ=14.1	Cardinals -1½
Bears @ Jaguars	Bears ρ=1.2639	Bears* δ=14.4	Bears -5½
Chargers @ Saints	Chargers ρ=1.2339	Chargers* δ=8.7	Saints -3½
Falcons @ Redskins	Falcons ρ=1.1895	Falcons* δ=13.4	Falcons -2½
Browns @ Giants	Giants* ρ=1.1319	Giants δ=8.6	Giants -10
Packers @ Colts	Packers ρ=1.0884	Packers* δ=9.4	Packers -7
Dolphins @ Bengals	Bengals* ρ=1.0680	Dolphins* δ=3.7	Bengals -4
Eagles @ Steelers	Eagles* ρ=1.0367	Eagles* δ=1.6	Steelers -3
Broncos @ Patriots	Patriots* ρ=1.0195	Broncos* δ=0.1	Patriots -7

Bye: Buccaneers, Lions, Cowboys, Raiders

Comments:

• Ravens -4½ sure doesn't seem like much of a line. Except for their OT win at the Saints, the Chiefs have been losing by at least 16 points.

• The Jets need to come out fighting if they want to save their season. But the Texans are so much better right now, I'm not sure how much difference they can make.

• Why is the Line taking the Saints? Sure, they looked at least a little better last Sunday, but their defense is still awful.

• The Jets are the only team the Steelers have held under 30 points so far. I think the Eagles will be able to keep that streak going.

• SRS makes an interesting rogue pick of the Dolphins over the Bengals. The Dolphins did take the Jets and Cardinals to overtime; they could easily be 3-1 right now...

NFL Week 4 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 4 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

On the bubble

The Giants (+6) don't have a win outside a couple weak NFC South teams. On the other hand, they started out struggling last year, too. So... repeat?

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Dolphins (-11)

The Dolphins did take the 4-0 Cardinals to overtime this week. And their overtime loss to the Jets looked a lot better before the Jets got pummeled by the 49ers last Sunday.

Colts (-9)

The Colts are certainly better than the #31 spot ESPN has them in. The Chiefs, Titans, and yeah, the Saints should all be below the Colts.

Seahawks (-9)

Russell Wilson still hasn't passed for more than 160 yards in a game (140 if you subtract out sack yardage). Their close loss to the Cardinals in week 1 is probably holding them up, but APR has them way overrated at #9

On the bubble

The Jaguars' (-6) Blane Gabbert is playing noticably better than last year (a low bar to clear, to be sure).

NFL Week 4 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-2)

Right:

Patriots @ Bills
Chargers @ Chiefs
Browns @ Ravens
Titans @ Texans
Panthers @ Falcons
Saints @ Packers
Dolphins @ Cardinals
Raiders @ Broncos

Wrong:

Seahawks @ Rams

The Rams' offense still isn't very good, but they're good enough to get a win when their defense gets 3 interceptions and holds their opponent to 13 points. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have only scored more than 16 points in one game, and Pete Carroll sounds like he is wishing he had made a different choice for his starting quarterback.

Redskins @ Buccaneers

The Buccaneers' defense really broke down in this game, allowing the Redskins to sprint out to a 21-3 lead. Then, when the Bucs managed to claw their way back to a 1-point lead, their defense couldn't get one more stop to secure the win.

Split Picks: (APR: 3-2, SRS: 2-3, Line: 3-2)

Vikings (APR, SRS) @ Lions (Line)

The Lions gave up two more touchdowns on special teams. Their offense only managed 55 yards rushing. Matt Stafford threw incomplete 21 times, and was sacked 5 times. The Lions are just not a good team right now.

Giants (SRS) @ Eagles (APR, Line)

The Giants' defense only forced 2 sacks, gave up nearly 200 rushing yards, and didn't get a turnover from an Eagles' squad that lost 15 turnovers in its first 3 games. That's a problem for games like this one, where the Giants' offense only puts up 17 points.

Bengals (Line) @ Jaguars (APR, SRS)

I'm willing to stipulate that APR had the Bengals under-rated at #21 in the week 3 power rankings. And the Jaguars aren't a very good team, especially when Maurice Jones-Drew only has 38 yards rushing.

Bears (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)

So remember how I said the Bears' defense thrives on turnovers in the game picks? Yeah, that.

49ers (Line) @ Jets (APR, SRS)

The Jets' day on offense: 2 lost fumbles, an interception, and 8 punts. Their longest drive was just 30 yards. They never attempted a 4th-down conversion. The Jets could be looking at a long, ugly season this year.

Totals

A much better week all around.

	This Week			This Season			%
APR	11	-	4	25	-	22	53.2%
SRS	10	-	5	24	-	23	51.2%
Line	11	-	4	28	-	19	59.6%