NFL: Week 9 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑1)	Steelers	1.0463 (LW × 1.0035)	6-2	Won by 6 @ Bengals
2 (↑3)	Ravens	1.0258 (LW × 1.0135)	6-2	Won by 16 vs Dolphins
3 (-)	Jets	1.0166 (LW × 0.9845)	6-2	Won by 3 @ Lions
4 (↑2)	Titans	1.0110 (LW × 1.0034)	5-3	Bye
5 (↓1)	Colts	0.9998 (LW × 0.9825)	5-3	Lost by 2 @ Eagles
6 (↓5)	Patriots	0.9842 (LW × 0.9393)	6-2	Lost by 20 @ Browns
7 (-)	Packers	0.9778 (LW × 0.9935)	6-3	Won by 38 vs Cowboys
8 (↑1)	Falcons	0.9765 (LW × 1.0087)	6-2	Won by 6 vs Buccaneers
9 (↑2)	Giants	0.9684 (LW × 1.0247)	6-2	Won by 34 @ Seahawks
10 (-)	Eagles	0.9624 (LW × 1.0176)	5-3	Won by 2 vs Colts
11 (↓3)	Chiefs	0.9531 (LW × 0.9814)	5-3	Lost by 3 @ Raiders
12 (↑1)	Chargers	0.9225 (LW × 1.0024)	4-5	Won by 6 @ Texans
13 (↑2)	Saints	0.9217 (LW × 1.0272)	6-3	Won by 31 @ Panthers
14 (↑8)	Browns	0.9205 (LW × 1.0640)	3-5	Won by 20 vs Patriots
15 (↑2)	Raiders	0.9051 (LW × 1.0140)	5-4	Won by 3 vs Chiefs
16 (↓4)	Dolphins	0.8978 (LW × 0.9621)	4-4	Lost by 16 @ Ravens
17 (↓3)	Vikings	0.8950 (LW × 0.9828)	3-5	Won by 3 vs Cardinals
18 (↓2)	Lions	0.8926 (LW × 0.9996)	2-6	Lost by 3 vs Jets
19 (↑2)	Rams	0.8790 (LW × 0.9977)	4-4	Bye
20 (↓1)	Bears	0.8779 (LW × 0.9946)	5-3	Won by 3 @ Bills
21 (↓1)	Redskins	0.8753 (LW × 0.9935)	4-4	Bye
22 (↑1)	Buccaneers	0.8699 (LW × 1.0220)	5-3	Lost by 6 @ Falcons
23 (↓5)	Texans	0.8647 (LW × 0.9764)	4-4	Lost by 6 vs Chargers
24 (↑2)	Bengals	0.8437 (LW × 1.0074)	2-6	Lost by 6 vs Steelers
25 (-)	Jaguars	0.8395 (LW × 0.9923)	4-4	Bye
26 (↑1)	Cardinals	0.8323 (LW × 1.0073)	3-5	Lost by 3 @ Vikings
27 (↑1)	49ers	0.8190 (LW × 0.9996)	2-6	Bye
28 (↓4)	Seahawks	0.8148 (LW × 0.9622)	4-4	Lost by 34 vs Giants
29 (↑1)	Broncos	0.7995 (LW × 0.9949)	2-6	Bye
30 (↓1)	Cowboys	0.7891 (LW × 0.9797)	1-7	Lost by 38 @ Packers
31 (-)	Bills	0.7822 (LW × 0.9769)	0-8	Lost by 3 vs Bears
32 (-)	Panthers	0.7187 (LW × 0.9833)	1-7	Lost by 31 vs Saints

Comments:

• More trouble for those top-rated AFC teams: the Patriots and Colts lose, the Jets need a 10-point come-back and overtime to beat the Lions, and the Steelers nearly let a division game against the very bad Bengals slip away.

• Wow, the how bad are the Cowboys? No surprise that Wade Phillips got fired. I wonder how bad it will be before Jerry Jones fires the Cowboys' GM?

• Packers don't get any love from APR for their blow-out home win against that very bad Cowboys team. The Packers are now just barely ranked over the Falcons. APR would have moved the Falcons up 2 more spots if they had won by 7 points instead of 6.

• The Vikings manage to squeak out a close win, but with 7 NFC teams already at 5-3 or better, they're a long ways from being back in the playoff race.

• I figured the chances for a Seahawks upset were gone when it was announced that Matt Hasselbeck wouldn't start. I sure didn't figure the team would come apart like a wet paper bag.

• But on a happier note, my pick of the Rams to win the NFC West seems to be on track. They may only make it to 8 wins this year, but that's probably all it will take.

NFL: How good are this year's teams, and what can we tell about the playoffs from week 8?

I claimed in this week's power rankings that the Patriots aren't very dominant for the top-ranked team. By way of proof, here are the top-ranked teams for week 8 for each season from 1993 to 2010.

Each team is ranked according to its APR power index (ρ) after the week 8 round of games, from highest to lowest.

Year	Team	Week 8 ρ	Week 8 W-L	Finished W-L	Playoffs
2007	Patriots	1.1813	8-0	16-0	#1 seed (2-1)
2004	Eagles	1.1614	7-0	13-3	#1 seed (2-1)
2009	Saints	1.1571	7-0	13-3	#1 seed (3-0)
1998	Broncos	1.1274	7-0	14-2	#1 seed (3-0)
1996	Packers	1.1201	6-1	13-3	#1 seed (3-0)
1997	Broncos	1.1056	6-1	12-4	#4 seed (4-0)
1995	Cowboys	1.1009	6-1	12-4	#1 seed (3-0)
2005	Broncos	1.1005	6-2	13-3	#2 seed (1-1)
2000	Vikings	1.0872	7-0	11-5	#2 seed (1-1)
2001	Rams	1.0859	6-1	14-2	#1 seed (2-1)
2008	Titans	1.0831	7-0	13-3	#1 seed (0-1)
2003	Chiefs	1.0824	8-0	13-3	#2 seed (0-1)
2006	Giants	1.0724	5-2	8-8	#6 seed (0-1)
2002	Bucs	1.0715	6-2	12-4	#2 seed (3-0)
1994	Chargers	1.0570	6-1	11-5	#2 seed (2-1)
1999	Chiefs	1.0565	5-2	9-7	Did not qualify
1993	Bills	1.0560	5-1	12-4	#1 seed (2-1)
2010	Patriots	1.0478	6-1	tbd	To be decided

Comments:

• It's good to be #1 in week 8. Every #1 team except the 1999 Chiefs (and pending the results for the 2010 Patriots) made it to the playoffs. A lot of them made it to the Super Bowl.

• Also note that while there are a few teams on the bottom of the list that made it to the Super Bowl (1993 Bills, 1994 Chargers, and 2002 Bucs), most of the bottom-ranked teams did not.

• While the 2010 Patriots are easily the lowest-ranked team on this list, they aren't that far behind—their power index would qualify for the #2 or #3 spot on most of those years.

• But it does tend to confirm the perception that there really aren't any dominant teams this year.

• To give an idea of where the cut-off for the Super Bowl winner might be, here's a table of all Super Bowl winners 1993-2009, according to their week 8 power index (ρ).

  Year	Rank	Team	&rho	W-L
  2009	1	Saints	1.1571	7-0
  1998	1	Broncos	1.1274	7-0
  1996	1	Packers	1.1201	6-1
  1997	1	Broncos	1.1056	6-1
  1995	1	Cowboys	1.1009	6-1
  2002	1	Buccaneers	1.0715	6-2
  2006	2	Colts	1.0609	7-0
  1993	4	Cowboys	1.0229	4-2
  1999	6	Rams	1.0136	6-1
  2005	6	Steelers	1.0113	5-2
  2004	4	Patriots	1.0094	6-1
  2003	5	Patriots	0.9991	6-2
  1994	4	49ers	0.9989	6-2
  2008	6	Steelers	0.9772	5-2
  2001	5	Patrots	0.9724	4-4
  2007	10	Giants	0.9485	6-2
  2000	12	Ravens	0.9328	5-3

• Which means every team that's not in the top 6 right now has to be regarded as a long-shot (at best) to win the Super Bowl.

• Also note that, with the exception of the 2001 Patriots, every team is at least a couple wins over .500.

NFL: Week 9 Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Steelers @ Bengals	Steelers ρ=1.2450	Steelers* δ=10.7	Steelers -4½
Saints @ Panthers	Saints ρ=1.2276	Saints* δ=10.7	Saints -6½
Cowboys @ Packers	Packers* ρ=1.2219	Packers δ=9.9	Packers -8
Patriots @ Browns	Patriots ρ=1.2111	Patriots* δ=10.5	Patriots -4½
Jets @ Lions	Jets ρ=1.1563	Jets* δ=3.1	Jets -4
Buccaneers @ Falcons	Falcons ρ=1.1373	Falcons δ=10.7	Falcons -8½
Giants @ Seahawks	Giants* ρ=1.1160	Giants* δ=8.7	Giants -7
Bears @ Bills	Bears ρ=1.1023	Bears* δ=9.1	Bears -3
Cardinals @ Vikings	Vikings ρ=1.1022	Vikings δ=10.8	Vikings -9
Chiefs @ Raiders	Chiefs* ρ=1.0879	Chiefs* δ=0.5	Raiders -2½
Dolphins @ Ravens	Ravens* ρ=1.0847	Ravens δ=2.8	Ravens -5
Colts @ Eagles	Colts ρ=1.0760	Colts* δ=2.4	Eagles -2½
Chargers @ Texans	Chargers* ρ=1.0392	Chargers* δ=5.8	Chargers -2½

Bye: Broncos, Jaguars, 49ers, Rams, Titans, Redskins

Comments:

• As last week, *'s mean the Visitor/Home-split version of the algorithm disagrees with main "all games" version.

• No surprise that APR-VH and SRS-VH both pick against the Chargers, who are still winless on the road.

• Giants @ Seahawks is interesting. The Seahawks have played well in their 3 home games, and the Giant have their worst loss (@Colts) and an unimpressive win against a bad team (@Cowboys) on the road.

• I'm a little surprised that APR-VH likes the Cowboys over the Packers. But the Packers have struggled at least twice in home games (vs the Lions and Dolphins), and the one time the Cowboys looked like an actual playoff contender was @ the Texans. Even now, this has the feel of a trap game for the Packers, who may already have penciled in their sixth win and started looking ahead to their bye week.

NFL: Week 8 APR vs ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 7 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Buccaneers (+9)

ESPN's ranking of the Bucs at #14 is flat-out ridiculous. They have 5 wins, all against bottom-rung teams, and only one by a margin more than 3 points.

On the bubble:

Nobody, really. The Jaguars are closest at (+6).

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Lions (-11)

I'm inclined to agree with APR on this one. In spite of their 2-5 record, the Lions seem much improved over last year. Given their remaining schedule, I don't think 7 wins is out of reach (if Stafford &c can remain healthy).

Vikings (-9)

The Vikings drop in ESPN's power rankings has to be mostly due to the Randy Moss fiasco. So far, all APR sees is that the Vikings have lost a lot of close games, some to high ranked teams.

Chargers (-9)

Another team with a lot of close losses. They do seem pretty good at home. If they could just win on the road...

On the bubble:

No one else closer than (-3).

NFL: Week 8 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (4-4)

Right

Bills @ Chiefs
Panthers @ Rams
Vikings @ Patriots
Texans @ Colts

Wrong

Packers @ Jets

Of course the Packers' defense came up big, pitching a shut-out thanks in part to two recovered fumbles and two interceptions. But Tim Masthay, the Packers punter had a huge game too. He punted 8 times, and every one was downed at or inside the Jets 23 yard line. A critical performance for special teams in a game when even a couple short fields could've made the difference for the Jets.

Jaguars @ Cowboys

David Garrard and Maurice Jones-Drew both had very effective days, while John Kita threw four interceptions. This is also just the second game this season the Jaguars haven't given up at least 26 points.

Broncos "@" 49ers (London)

The Broncos offense continued to struggle: it took until the early 4th quarter to get to 10 points scored. Still, they had a chance to win, until a series of mistakes (long kick return, a bad punt and a lost fumble) gave the 49ers three short fields, which they turned into a quick 21 points.

Steelers @ Saints

This could've been another very ugly game for the Saints, who were held to just 6 points until the fourth quarter. But their defense came up big, shutting down the Steelers for most of the game, and coming up with a critical forced fumble and recovery on one of the Steelers best drives.

Split (APR: 2-3 SRS: 4-1 Line: 3-2)

Titans (APR, SRS) @ Chargers (Line)

The Titans had their troubles on offense, including a second half that only produced 6 points. But their real problem was on defense. Philip Rivers threw for 305 yards and 2 touchdowns, 5 different players carried the ball for a total of 156 yards, and the Chargers mounted 6 scoring drives against a defense that had held most of their opponents under 20 points scored.

Redskins (APR) @ Lions (SRS, Line)

You've certainly heard about it by now, but this was the game. The Redskins are out of time outs, down 6, and have 1:50 to drive 70 yards for a go-ahead touchdown. (To be fair, the Redskins struggled mightily on offense, and didn't have a 70-yard drive all game.) Mike Shanahan decides it's time to bench Donovan McNabb and send in backup Rex Grossman. Grossman is strip-sacked on his first snap, and Ndamukong Suh ran ball back for the game-clinching touchdown.

Seahawks (APR) @ Raiders (SRS, Line)

As mentioned in the game picks, the Seahawks are the worst road team in the league. Except for their one win at the Bears, they've been outscored on the road by at least 17 points every time.

Dolphins (APR, SRS) @ Bengals (Line)

The Dolphins have been inconsistent this year, but the Bengals have been awful. Carson Palmer completed just 17 passes on 38 attempts for 156 yards. It's a credit to their defense that they were in this game basically up to their final possession.

Buccaneers (APR, SRS) @ Cardinals (Line)

In a lot of ways, the Cardinals are still a good team. But the quarterback position is not one of them. Max Hall threw 16 passes, two of which the Buccaneers took back for touchdowns. Derek Anderson came in and managed to look mostly adequate, but it wasn't enough.

Totals

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	6-7	50-51-0	49.5%
APR VH	9-4	51-50-0	50.5%
SRS	8-5	52-49-0	51.5%
SRS VH	9-4	54-46-1	54.0%
Line	7-6	58-43-0	57.4%

NFL: Week 8 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑3)	Patriots	1.0478 (LW × 1.0135)	6-1	Won by 10 vs Vikings
2 (↓1)	Steelers	1.0426 (LW × 0.9471)	5-2	Lost by 10 @ Saints
3 (↓1)	Jets	1.0325 (LW × 0.9540)	5-2	Lost by 9 vs Packers
4 (↑2)	Colts	1.0176 (LW × 1.0029)	5-2	Won by 13 vs Texans
5 (-)	Ravens	1.0121 (LW × 0.9865)	5-2	Bye
6 (↓3)	Titans	1.0076 (LW × 0.9541)	5-3	Lost by 8 @ Chargers
7 (↑4)	Packers	0.9843 (LW × 1.0614)	5-3	Won by 9 @ Jets
8 (↓1)	Chiefs	0.9712 (LW × 0.9974)	5-2	Won by 3 vs Bills
9 (↓1)	Falcons	0.9681 (LW × 1.0068)	5-2	Bye
10 (-)	Eagles	0.9457 (LW × 1.0183)	4-3	Bye
11 (↓2)	Giants	0.9450 (LW × 0.9875)	5-2	Bye
12 (-)	Dolphins	0.9331 (LW × 1.0298)	4-3	Won by 8 @ Bengals
13 (↑4)	Chargers	0.9203 (LW × 1.0528)	3-5	Won by 8 vs Titans
14 (↓1)	Vikings	0.9107 (LW × 1.0083)	2-5	Lost by 10 @ Patriots
15 (↑10)	Saints	0.8973 (LW × 1.0623)	5-3	Won by 10 vs Steelers
16 (↑7)	Lions	0.8929 (LW × 1.0437)	2-5	Won by 12 vs Redskins
17 (↑5)	Raiders	0.8927 (LW × 1.0395)	4-4	Won by 30 vs Seahawks
18 (↓4)	Texans	0.8856 (LW × 0.9818)	4-3	Lost by 13 @ Colts
19 (↓3)	Bears	0.8827 (LW × 0.9968)	4-3	Bye
20 (↓5)	Redskins	0.8810 (LW × 0.9818)	4-4	Lost by 12 @ Lions
21 (↓1)	Rams	0.8810 (LW × 1.0152)	4-4	Won by 10 vs Panthers
22 (↓1)	Browns	0.8652 (LW × 0.9991)	2-5	Bye
23 (↑3)	Buccaneers	0.8512 (LW × 1.0247)	5-2	Won by 3 @ Cardinals
24 (↓6)	Seahawks	0.8468 (LW × 0.9689)	4-3	Lost by 30 @ Raiders
25 (↑4)	Jaguars	0.8460 (LW × 1.0532)	4-4	Won by 18 @ Cowboys
26 (↓2)	Bengals	0.8375 (LW × 0.9789)	2-5	Lost by 8 vs Dolphins
27 (↑1)	Cardinals	0.8262 (LW × 0.9996)	3-4	Lost by 3 vs Buccaneers
28 (↑2)	49ers	0.8194 (LW × 1.0444)	2-6	Won by 8 vs Broncos
29 (↓10)	Cowboys	0.8055 (LW × 0.9258)	1-6	Lost by 18 vs Jaguars
30 (↓3)	Broncos	0.8036 (LW × 0.9714)	2-6	Lost by 8 @ 49ers
31 (-)	Bills	0.8008 (LW × 1.0426)	0-7	Lost by 3 @ Chiefs
32 (-)	Panthers	0.7309 (LW × 1.0204)	1-6	Lost by 10 @ Rams

• Have I mentioned I'm terrible picking against the line? (Though to be fair, the Line isn't doing that great picking games either.)

• The Patriots are #1? Well, they are the last 1-loss team, which counts for something. But given the relatively close wins over the Bills and Vikings and a near melt-down at the Chargers, they're not exactly dominant

• And with the Jets, Steelers, and Titans all losing, it hasn't been a good week for the AFC over all. Early on it seemed like whatever AFC team made it to the Super Bowl would be an easy winner, but not so much any more. There's still a lot of football to play.

• APR really wants to like the Chargers. To be fair, that win over the Titans was a solid victory. But they're still 0-4 on the road. Even the Broncos and Raiders have road wins.

• And here come the Saints back up the charts. I'd be a lot more quick to jump on their band-wagon if they didn't have that awful loss to the Browns last week. But they do have a very easy schedule the rest of the way. Barring any more break downs like last week, they should get to at least 11 wins.

2010 NFL Navigation Links

2009 / 2011

This is a post of links to the regular NFL-related posts made during the 2010 season. Entries are linkified as new posts are added.

NFL 2010 Season

• NFL: Preseason Points
• Pythagorean Projection 2009->2010

Week 1	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results
Week 2	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results
Week 3	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results
Week 4	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 5	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 6	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 7	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 8	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 9	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 10	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 11	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 12	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 13	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 14	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 15	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 16	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 17	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Wildcard	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results
Divisional	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results
Championship	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results
Super Bowl	Pick	Power Rankings	Pick Result

• Week 10 Strength of Schedule
• Week 13 Strength of Schedule

Wrapup

• APR's Upsets
• Pythagorean Projection vs Reality
• APR vs ESPN
• Significance of the first two games
• APR Picks by Team
• APR Pick Reliability

Other Stuff Posted During the 2010 Season

• NFL: How good are this year's teams, and what can we tell about the playoffs from week 8?