NFL: How Super Bowl teams fared the following season

Almost since Super Bowl XLV went final, there's been talk about the Packers repeating. But repeating has never been easy, and in the last 12 seasons, even getting back to the playoffs hasn't been a gimmie for Super Bowl teams.

This table takes the winners and losers of each Super Bowl, and shows their respective regular season records, and post season results (if any). (Naturally, the results for the Packers and Steelers are pending).

Update: added results for 2014.

Season	Winner	W-L-T	Post	Loser	W-L-T	Post
2015	Patriots	TBD	TBD	Seahawks	TBD	TBD
2014	Seahawks	12-4	(2-1)	Broncos	12-4	(0-1)
2013	Ravens	8- 8	—	49ers	12- 4	(2-1)
2012	Giants	9- 7	—	Patriots	12- 4	(1-1)
2011	Packers	15- 1	(0-1)	Steelers	12- 4	(0-1)
2010	Saints	11- 5	(0-1)	Colts	10- 6	(0-1)
2009	Steelers	9- 7	—	Cardinals	10- 6	(1-1)
2008	Giants	12- 4	(0-1)	Patriots	11- 5	—
2007	Colts	13- 3	(0-1)	Bears	7- 9	—
2006	Steelers	8- 8	—	Seahawks	9- 7	(1-1)
2005	Patriots	10- 6	(1-1)	Eagles	6-10	—
2004	Patriots	14- 2	(3-0)	Panthers	7- 9	—
2003	Buccaneers	7- 9	—	Raiders	4-12	—
2002	Patriots	9- 7	—	Rams	7- 9	—
2001	Ravens	10- 6	(1-1)	Giants	7- 9	—
2000	Rams	10- 6	(0-1)	Titans	13- 3	(0-1)
1999	Broncos	6-10	—	Falcons	5-11	—
1998	Broncos	14- 2	(3-0)	Packers	11- 5	(0-1)
1997	Packers	13- 3	(2-1)	Patriots	10- 6	(1-1)
1996	Cowboys	10- 6	(1-1)	Steelers	10- 6	(1-1)
1995	49ers	11- 5	(0-1)	Chargers	9- 7	(0-1)
1994	Cowboys	12- 4	(1-1)	Bills	7- 9	—
1993	Cowboys	12- 4	(3-0)	Bills	12- 4	(2-1)
1992	Redskins	9- 7	(1-1)	Bills	11- 5	(3-1)
1991	Giants	8- 8	—	Bills	13- 3	(2-1)
1990	49ers	14- 2	(1-1)	Broncos	5-11	—
1989	49ers	14- 2	(3-0)	Bengals	8- 8	—
1988	Redskins	7- 9	—	Broncos	8- 8	—
1987	Giants	6- 9	—	Broncos	10- 4-1	(2-1)
1986	Bears	14- 2	(0-1)	Patriots	11- 5	(0-1)
1985	49ers	10- 6	(0-1)	Dolphins	12- 4	(1-1)
1984	Raiders	11- 5	(0-1)	Redskins	11- 5	(0-1)
1983	Redskins	14- 2	(2-1)	Dolphins	12- 4	(0-1)
1982	49ers	3- 6	—	Bengals	7- 2	(0-1)
1981	Raiders	7- 9	—	Eagles	10- 6	(0-1)
1980	Steelers	9- 7	—	Rams	11- 5	(0-1)
1979	Steelers	12- 4	(3-0)	Cowboys	11- 5	(0-1)
1978	Cowboys	12- 4	(2-1)	Broncos	10- 6	(0-1)
1977	Raiders	11- 3	(1-1)	Vikings	9- 5	(1-1)
1976	Steelers	10- 4	(1-1)	Cowboys	11- 3	(0-1)
1975	Steelers	12- 2	(3-0)	Vikings	12- 2	(0-1)
1974	Dolphins	11- 3	(0-1)	Vikings	10- 4	(2-1)
1973	Dolphins	12- 2	(3-0)	Redskins	10- 4	(0-1)
1972	Cowboys	10- 4	(1-1)	Dolphins	14- 0	(3-0)
1971	Colts	10- 4	(1-1)	Cowboys	11- 3	(3-0)
1970	Chiefs	7- 5-2	—	Vikings	12- 2	(0-1)
1969	Jets	10- 4	(0-1)	Colts	8- 5-1	—
1968	Packers	6- 7-1	—	Raiders	12- 2	(1-1)
1967	Packers	9- 4-1	(3-0)	Chiefs	9- 5	—

Comments:

• In the 32 seasons from 1967 to 1998, there was only one season (1988) where both Super Bowl teams from the previous year were out of the playoffs.

• Of the 64 Super Bowl teams in this era, 14 (21.9%) were out of the playoffs the following season.

• In the 12 seasons from 1999 to 2010, we've already had three seasons (1999, 2002, and 2003) where both Super Bowl teams were out of the playoffs the following year.

• Of the 24 Super Bowl teams in this era, 13 (54.2%) were out of the playoffs the following season.

• The "Super Bowl losers' curse" really stands out in this table—only 2 of 12 losers since 1998 have even won one playoff game the following season, and 8 (66.7%) have been out of the playoffs completely.

• Super Bowl winners haven't done well either. Since 1998, only the Ravens (2001) and Patriots (2004, 2005) have won a playoff game following their respective Super Bowl victories.

• The 1987 Giants may deserve an asterisk for their 6-9 record. During the players' strike, the Giants' "replacement players" went 0-3, putting them in an 0-5 hole when the strike ended, which meant they were already pretty much out of the playoffs.

NFL: Fate of the last team to lose

Back early in the 2010 season (shortly after the Chiefs became the last undefeated team), someone on another blog posted a comment wondering if the last undefeated team had ever missed the playoffs.

That inspired a look through my data, and ultimitely this post. The following table contains the fate of every last-to-lose team since the 1970 season (most season before that just had a single league championship playoff game).

Year	Week of Loss	Last to Lose	Regular W-L	Playoffs
1970	4	Broncos Rams Lions	5-8-1 9-4-1 10-4	Out of playoffs Out of playoffs 1-and-done
1971	6	Redskins	9-4-1	1-and-done
1972	n/a	Dolphins	14-0	Won Super Bowl VII
1973	10	Vikings	12-2	Lost Super Bowl VIII
1974	8	Cardinals	10-4	1-and-done
1975	11	Vikings	12-2	1-and-done
1976	8	Vikings	11-2-1	Lost Super Bowl XI
1977	9	Cowboys	12-2	Won Super Bowl XII
1978	8	Steelers Rams	14-2 12-4	Won Super Bowl XIII Lost NFC CG
1979	6	Buccaneers	10-6	Lost NFC CG
1980	6	Bills	11-5	1-and-done
1981	7	Eagles	10-6	1-and-done
1982	5	Redskins	8-1	Won Super Bowl XVII
1983	8	Cowboys	12-4	1-and-done
1984	12	Dolphins	14-2	Lost Super Bowl XIX
1985	13	Bears	15-1	Won Super Bowl XX
1986	7	Bears Broncos	14-2 11-5	1-and-done Lost Super Bowl XXI
1987	5	Bears	11-4	1-and-done
1988	7	Bengals	12-4	Lost Super Bowl XXIII
1989	6	Rams	11-5	Lost NFC CG
1990	12	Giants 49ers	13-3 14-2	Won Super Bowl XXV Lost NFC CG
1991	13	Redskins	14-2	Won Super Bowl XXVI
1992	8	Dolphins	11-5	Lost AFC CG
1993	7	Saints	8-8	Out of playoffs
1994	8	Chargers	11-5	Lost Super Bowl XXIX
1995	6	Dolphins	9-7	1-and-done
1996	6	Colts	9-7	1-and-done
1997	8	Broncos	12-4	Won Super Bowl XXXII
1998	15	Broncos	14-2	Won Super Bowl XXXIII
1999	8	Rams	13-3	Won Super Bowl XXXIV
2000	9	Vikings	11-5	Lost NFC CG
2001	7	Rams	14-2	Lost Super Bowl XXXVI
2002	6	Raiders	11-5	Lost Super Bowl XXXVII
2003	11	Chiefs	13-3	1-and-done
2004	9	Eagles	13-3	Lost Super Bowl XXXIX
2005	15	Colts	14-2	1-and-done
2006	11	Colts	12-4	Won Super Bowl XLI
2007	n/a	Patriots	16-0	Lost Super Bowl XLII
2008	12	Titans	13-3	1-and-done
2009	16	Colts	14-2	Lost Super Bowl XLIV
2010	5	Chiefs	10-6	1-and-done
2011	15	Packers	15-1	1-and-done
2012	10	Falcons	tbd	tbd

• From 1970-1977, the NFL had an 8-team playoff format (4 teams from each league). From 1978-1989 (except 1982), the NFL had a 10-team playoff format. They expanded to a 12-game format in 1990 (which was modified for realignment in 2002).

• 1982 was a strike-shortened year, and teams only played 9 games in the regular season, which was followed by a one-off 16-team playoff tournament. 1987 was another strike year, and 3 weeks worth of games were played with "replacement" players (this was followed by the usual 10-team playoff round).

• What this all means is (particularly before the 16-team playoff format), there isn't a lot of room between 1-and-done and making the Super Bowl—in the 8-team playoff format, half the playoff teams were 1-and-done every year.

• If you've been following along the posts on significance of the first two games, it's no surprise that the last undefeated team generally does very well. Of the 46 teams listed, 43 (93.4%) made the playoffs, and 22 (47.8%) made it to the Super Bowl.

2011 Navigation and Index

This post is an index of posts I plan to make during the 2011 season, including the various weekly picks, pick results, and power rankings. It's primarily for my own benefit (so I can easily find stuff when I want to refer/link to it). But you're welcome to use it as and when you see fit.

As usual, new entries will be added and existing entries will be linkified as new posts are made.

2010 / 2012

Offseason/Preseason

• Fate of the last team to lose
• How Super Bowl Teams fared the following season
• Pythagorean Projection
• A poll, and some thoughts on the first half of the preseason
• 1961 + 50
• Home games in the Divisional round
• 7, 8, and 9-loss teams in the playoffs
• Home games in the Championship round

NFL 2011 Season

Yeah, I've decided to be optimistic that we're going to have a full slate of games in 2011. (And I was right. Yay!)

Week 1	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results
Week 2	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results
Week 3	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results
Week 4	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 5	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 6	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 7	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 8	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 9	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 10	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 11	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 12	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 13	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 14	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 15	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 16	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Week 17	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR/ESPN
Wildcard	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results
Divisional	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results
Championship	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results
Super Bowl	Pick	Power Rankings	Pick Result

• Q1 Strength of schedule
• Q2 Strength of schedule
• Q3 Strength of schedule

Wrapup

• APR vs ESPN
• APR's Upsets
• APR Picks by Team
• Pythagorean Projection vs Reality
• Significance of First Two Games
• APR Pick Reliability

NFL Wrapup: APR Pick Reliability

APR: Home vs. Visitor

Here's the breakdown of pick accuracy for picking the visiting or home teams:

	Visitor Won	Home Won	Total
Picked Visitor	67	63	130
Picked Home	42	68	110
Total	109	131	240

So, the good news is, when APR picked the home team, it was right a reasonably good 61.8% of the time (though still short of the Line's 65.0% record). The bad news is, when APR picked the road team, it was little better than a coin-flip.

APR also picked the home team less than half the time

Picks by Matchup Ratio

The matchup ratio (ρ) for each game is the quotient of the corresponding power indexes for each team (larger divided by the smaller). It is intended to be an indication of "pick confidence": ρ values near 1.0 involve teams judged to be very close in power, while large values indicate more of a mismatch.

Confidence Range			Picked Right	Picked Wrong	%
	ρ	<1.02	8	9	47.1%
1.02<=	ρ	<1.04	9	12	42.9%
1.04<=	ρ	<1.06	14	8	63.6%
1.06<=	ρ	<1.08	9	14	39.1%
1.08<=	ρ	<1.11	14	13	51.9%
1.11<=	ρ	<1.15	27	16	61.8%
1.15<=	ρ	<1.20	16	9	64.0%
1.20<=	ρ	<1.30	19	13	59.3%
1.30<=	ρ		19	11	63.3%

There's a pretty clear cut-off right around ρ ≥ 1.11 where the confidence value really seems to work well; pick results are at or above a 60% success rate.

The bad news is, particularly for ρ < 1.08, the confidence value was actually a negative indicator of which team would win, at least this year.

I need to run the pick results for more seasons to find out how much of this is how APR works, and how much it was a quirk of this season. But that's going to have to wait for another time if I want to get this posted while it's still February...

NFL Wrapup: APR Picks by Team

APR's pick results by team, for weeks 2-17 of the regular season.

Record	Teams	Comments
13-2	Panthers	APR never picked the Panthers to win
11-4	Patriots, Giants
10-5	Falcons, Bills, Vikings, Jets, Steelers, 49ers, Buccaneers
9-6	Ravens, Bengals, Packers, Chiefs, Saints, Seahawks	16 teams at 9-6 or above. A noticable drop off from last year
8-7	Cardinals, Bears, Cowboys, Broncos, Colts	Of course, many of the teams picked 8-7 or worse had inconsistent seasons.
7-8	Eagles, Rams, Titans, Redskins, Browns, Dolphins	All these teams had quarterback issues to one degree or another.
6-9	Lions, Texans, Raiders, Chargers	Texans: terrible defense. Raiders: couldn't win outside the division. Chargers: couldn't win on the road. Lions: couldn't keep any of their quarterbacks healty.
5-10	Jaguars	The Jaguars were consistently awful on defense. Occasionally, David Garrard and Maruice Jones-Drew were good enough for that not to matter.

NFL: Super Bowl Pick Result

Winning team in bold.

Steelers vs. Packers (APR, SRS, Line)

Today I was listening to the local ESPN radio affiliate, and they were trying to puzzle out why an elite quarterback like Ben Roethlisberger had such a bad game in the Super Bowl. I'm pretty sure I know the answer: Ben Roethlisberger is not an elite quarterback.

Oh, to be sure, he's a descent quarterback, and one mostly adequate to the way the Steelers like to play football (solid defense, and run the ball a lot on offense). But I just don't think he's at the same level as Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or even Aaron Rodgers.

If you look at Roethlisberger's numbers in the playoffs, he had 2½ good quarters against the Ravens, and maybe one good quarter against the Jets. In the Super Bowl, except for a few drives, he had perhaps his best game of the playoffs.

The problem, of course, is that the mistakes on those bad drives (the two interceptions and the final four-and-out) cost the Steelers the game. And that was the difference in the game—Aaron Rodgers was able to play better against the Steelers defense than Ben Roethlisberger was able to play against the Packers defense.

Totals

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	1-0	9-2	81.8%
SRS	1-0	9-2	81.8%
Line	1-0	6-5	54.5%

Epilogue

That's (almost) it for the 2010 season. I've got a couple more wrap-up posts to do, and then, as usual, fspi will be pretty quiet until football starts up again (hopefully next fall).

Until then, thanks for reading. See you in September.

NFL: Super Bowl Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑1)	Packers	1.1701 (LW × 1.0107)	14-6	Won by 6 vs Steelers
2 (↓1)	Patriots	1.1658 (LW × 1.0045)	14-3	Bye
3 (-)	Steelers	1.0919 (LW × 1.0127)	14-5	Lost by 6 @ Packers
4 (-)	Jets	1.0609 (LW × 1.0049)	13-6	Bye
5 (-)	Ravens	1.0243 (LW × 1.0043)	13-5	Bye
6 (-)	Bears	1.0133 (LW × 1.0044)	12-6	Bye
7 (-)	Falcons	1.0038 (LW × 1.0038)	13-4	Bye
8 (-)	Saints	0.9611 (LW × 1.0027)	11-6	Bye
9 (-)	Eagles	0.9571 (LW × 1.0029)	10-7	Bye
10 (-)	Buccaneers	0.9564 (LW × 1.0023)	10-6	Bye
11 (-)	Lions	0.9511 (LW × 1.0036)	6-10	Bye
12 (-)	Giants	0.9364 (LW × 1.0027)	10-6	Bye
13 (-)	Cowboys	0.9090 (LW × 1.0024)	6-10	Bye
14 (-)	Chargers	0.8984 (LW × 1.0015)	9-7	Bye
15 (-)	Colts	0.8956 (LW × 1.0019)	10-7	Bye
16 (-)	Bills	0.8919 (LW × 1.0041)	4-12	Bye
17 (-)	Dolphins	0.8862 (LW × 1.0034)	7-9	Bye
18 (-)	Raiders	0.8850 (LW × 1.0022)	8-8	Bye
19 (-)	Browns	0.8707 (LW × 1.0042)	5-11	Bye
20 (-)	Vikings	0.8649 (LW × 1.0035)	6-10	Bye
21 (-)	Bengals	0.8592 (LW × 1.0043)	4-12	Bye
22 (-)	Jaguars	0.8553 (LW × 1.0016)	8-8	Bye
23 (-)	Texans	0.8312 (LW × 1.0016)	6-10	Bye
24 (-)	Redskins	0.8279 (LW × 1.0020)	6-10	Bye
25 (-)	49ers	0.8158 (LW × 1.0022)	6-10	Bye
26 (-)	Chiefs	0.8145 (LW × 1.0014)	10-7	Bye
27 (-)	Titans	0.7836 (LW × 1.0013)	6-10	Bye
28 (-)	Seahawks	0.7774 (LW × 1.0020)	8-10	Bye
29 (-)	Rams	0.7738 (LW × 1.0016)	7-9	Bye
30 (-)	Broncos	0.7265 (LW × 1.0012)	4-12	Bye
31 (-)	Panthers	0.7244 (LW × 1.0034)	2-14	Bye
32 (-)	Cardinals	0.6896 (LW × 1.0016)	5-11	Bye

Comments:

• The Packers finally overtake the Patriots for first place.

• Every team increases by power, at least a little. I suspect that's a symptom of the margin power values not being balanced quite right...

• APR has had the Packers and Steelers highly ranked all year long. The Packers have been in the top 5 since week 11, except for week 14 (after the loss to the Lions). The Steelers have been ranked 6 or higher every week except week 1.

• In spite of all the talk of Pouncey being out for the Steelers, it didn't seem like the Packers got a lot of pressure on Roethlisberger. He was only sacked once, and mostly seemed to have time when he dropped back to pass.

• The Packers 13 rush attempts tie for the fewest of any team to win in the playoffs (*1999 Rams in Super Bowl XXXIV also had 13).